The weight of the deposit reserve ratio increase the property market, the stock market
2010-5-4 Daily News
raising the deposit reserve ratio tremendous blow to the property market, there are associated negative impact on the stock market.
The same control means stock market reaction is completely different .2007 10 raised the deposit reserve rate 8 times higher, 2 down, twice this year raised the deposit reserve ratio were all decreased. estimated that this increase will not be too unexpected.
reasons an increase in the capital market has generated the expected product prices down. accommodative monetary policy to phase out unshakable.
2007 年 raising the deposit reserve rate is in the global asset bubbles and inflation worsening trend, the deposit reserve ratio interest rate increase does not help with one or two, but was deemed advantage of this opportunity is good, rampant speculation. and this year raised the deposit reserve ratio of the background is unstable in the real economy, property market turnover fell,cheap UGG boots, the stock market began to decline. If 2009 was deliberately created bubble price data, then this is the key to squeeze the bubble years. the market has this produced a clear expectation. current sharp decline in the real estate market volume is the prelude to the price drop.
If anyone expect house prices appeared retaliatory after the rebound in the regulation, the equivalent of an economic crisis broke out hope that China, this time as the real estate will once again China's economic lifeline. but not the probability of this happening, because, according to the Chinese Federation of Logistics & Purchasing May 3 news, in April 2010, China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) business conditions index was 63.0%, the chain picked up 4.6 percentage points. Because there is no non-manufacturing index, usually in the business conditions index to reflect changes in non-manufacturing economy as a whole. This month business activity index shows changes in the current economic activities of the overall non-manufacturing sector to become more active. while China's manufacturing purchasing managers index for the first 14 months of growth, indicating that manufacturing is still in the active region, the central bank to control money and therefore have the lung power and space.
The second reason is the decline in monetary liquidity. Some scholars believe that the present has too much money, only to raise interest rates to curb inflation. In fact, relying on the CPI difficult to accurately measure with the PPI investment and heat prices, capital prices have an important reference factor. in the CPI and PPI in addition, FPI (FinancialPriceIndex) the price index for financial assets will have a significant impact of monetary policy.
entities in China last year economy has yet to show that when the heat, house prices have been skyrocketing, the stock market followed market insight again called attention to CPI at the same time must pay attention to FPI. accommodative monetary policy in the critical stage of phasing out the same is true If the volume of investment products and prices fell sharply, waiting for the follow-up effect is the rational policy choice. when the property market and stock market decline will lead to evaporation of wealth and money flow slowed down,UGG boots clearance, it indirectly led to decline in base money.
investment boom has dropped aura. inhibit the local financing and real estate lending platform cooling, making the bank the relevant delivery delay, need to purchase surplus notes to make up the line of credit. and last year's expansion of the actual issuance of bills of different credit Qishangmanxia This year the opposite bank. that started to shrink the size of loans, the majority of bank loans into the real economy, pushing the balance of loans funded by the price of the trick severe pressure.
At the same time, sensitive folk sharp rise in interbank interest rates, since March of this year, the PRD civil lending rates rose sharply, the current 100% annual rate actually caused great concern of all parties, Wenzhou and other places the same. the credit under the weight of last year investment boom has caused some areas of the capital chain tension, to wantonly take to the sky-high price of real estate companies do not know it already goes to the altar, still fooling with.
The third reason is to make up for last year's over-expansion of the financing gap. Last year The excessive expansion of the financial institutions to enter a dangerous situation, in order to bridge the financing gap, the bank refinancing unavoidable.
CCB April 29 announcement that evening, to be 0.7 shares per 10 shares with a ratio of A + H the two cities also share placement financing, to replenish capital. Although the financing to refinance the amount of A shares only 30 billion yuan, the bulk of the H-share market, but is still in the market in terms of negative news. The key is the follow-up of the bank, queuing Wait-listed financial institutions, and whitewash the pressure after the Agricultural Bank of China listed, all of which are as frightened investors. has been to refinance more than the total management of that thing, but the Chinese stock market asset injection, spin-off market, the overall market, which allow investors to pay an equivalent to the net assets of more than ten times the real money? this year,Bailey UGG boots, institutional investors have to pay for last year's expansion policy, otherwise, the future of all taxpayers will foot the bill .
sad day there is the manufacturing sector, rising raw material costs. just one example, the current logistics costs exceeded the 2008 high, a listed company with a quarterly report in 2009 although wonderful, but most just past asset price bubbles and the easy credit of the sunset.
because of raising the deposit reserve ratio includes all of these choices, although raising the deposit reserve ratio, but recovery of 300 billion yuan of funds, but the market response has been far more than the recovery of 300 billion yuan, of far recovery of central bank bills issued over the central bank more than 1 trillion.
Wisdom of comfort for investors is different from the real estate market and suppress the stock market continue to be care, structural opportunities still exist. raising the deposit reserve rate to dispel the short-term the possibility of rate hike, because prices have stopped funding craziness, a lot of maturity of the central counting 5,6 month time window, but not the possibility of raising interest rates. Meanwhile,Discount UGG boots, the sharp appreciation of the RMB is absolutely impossible, and not much room between the U.S. dollar interest rates, although foreign investment into China, foreign enterprises will be converted to RMB, the process of borrowing foreign debt continues, the degree will be slightly crazy.
raising the deposit reserve rate is the combination of boxing in beat up, even on the property market in the stock market.
Note:
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